3. Liga · Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 60%, the draw at 21% and Fortuna Köln at 19%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rot-Weiß Essen have 4 in 8 this season (1 of 4 at home), Fortuna Köln 3 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.1 for Fortuna Köln. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | 50% | 38% | 63% |
| Fortuna Köln | 8 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
More: Rot-Weiß Essen season stats · Fortuna Köln season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.