First League · Monday, 12 October 2026. Final score 5–0 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Ludogorets at 54%, the draw at 26% and Arda Kardzhali at 20%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ludogorets have 4 in 9 this season (2 of 5 at home), Arda Kardzhali 4 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Ludogorets and 0.83 for Arda Kardzhali. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 9 | 44% | 11% | 67% |
| Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 40% | 30% | 60% |
More: Ludogorets season stats · Arda Kardzhali season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.