Liga Profesional · Monday, 12 October 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Gimnasia M. at 50%, the draw at 27% and Newells Old Boys at 23%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gimnasia M. have 11 in 27 this season (5 of 13 at home), Newells Old Boys 9 in 27 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 34%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 27 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 38% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Gimnasia M. and 0.9 for Newells Old Boys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia M. | 27 | 41% | 22% | 41% |
| Newells Old Boys | 27 | 33% | 19% | 52% |
More: Gimnasia M. season stats · Newells Old Boys season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.