NB I · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Zalaegerszegi TE at 63%, the draw at 21% and Nyiregyhaza at 17%, from expected goals of 2.13 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zalaegerszegi TE have 5 in 8 this season (1 of 3 at home), Nyiregyhaza 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.13 for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1 for Nyiregyhaza. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 63% | 25% | 25% |
| Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 63% | 25% | 75% |
More: Zalaegerszegi TE season stats · Nyiregyhaza season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.