Eredivisie · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Telstar at 47%, the draw at 23% and ADO Den Haag at 30%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Telstar have 4 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), ADO Den Haag 4 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Telstar and 1.47 for ADO Den Haag. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| ADO Den Haag | 7 | 57% | 57% | 71% |
More: Telstar season stats · ADO Den Haag season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.