J2 League · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Shonan Bellmare at 45%, the draw at 26% and Albirex Niigata at 30%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shonan Bellmare have 3 in 9 this season (1 of 3 at home), Albirex Niigata 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Shonan Bellmare and 1.24 for Albirex Niigata. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 33% | 22% | 56% |
| Albirex Niigata | 9 | 67% | 33% | 56% |
More: Shonan Bellmare season stats · Albirex Niigata season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.