First League · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Septemvri Sofia at 32%, the draw at 26% and Dunav Ruse at 42%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Septemvri Sofia have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Dunav Ruse 7 in 10 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.49 for Dunav Ruse. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 60% | 10% | 50% |
| Dunav Ruse | 10 | 70% | 30% | 70% |
More: Septemvri Sofia season stats · Dunav Ruse season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.