Premyer Liqa · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Safa Baku at 18%, the draw at 27% and Turan at 55%, from expected goals of 0.73 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Safa Baku have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Turan 2 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 0.73 for Safa Baku and 1.51 for Turan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Safa Baku season stats · Turan season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.