Pro League · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 4–3 (half-time 3–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts KV Mechelen at 22%, the draw at 23% and St. Truiden at 55%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.96.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KV Mechelen have 3 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), St. Truiden 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.17 for KV Mechelen and 1.96 for St. Truiden. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 7 | 43% | 43% | 29% |
| St. Truiden | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
More: KV Mechelen season stats · St. Truiden season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.