1. Lig · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Fatih Karagümrük at 57%, the draw at 25% and Muğlaspor at 18%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fatih Karagümrük have 3 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Muğlaspor 2 in 8 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.82 for Muğlaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 8 | 38% | 13% | 75% |
| Muğlaspor | 8 | 25% | 25% | 38% |
More: Fatih Karagümrük season stats · Muğlaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.