Premijer Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Čelik at 42%, the draw at 26% and FK Sarajevo at 31%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 39% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Čelik have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 3 at home), FK Sarajevo 1 in 8 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 32%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Čelik and 1.22 for FK Sarajevo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| FK Sarajevo | 8 | 13% | 0% | 13% |
More: Čelik season stats · FK Sarajevo season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.