Primera Nacional · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 71% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Almirante Brown at 45%, the draw at 36% and San Miguel at 19%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 0.52.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Almirante Brown have 6 in 32 this season (2 of 16 at home), San Miguel 10 in 32 (6 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 24% and 31%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 25% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 20%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Almirante Brown and 0.52 for San Miguel. Folding in 30% of that view gives 25%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almirante Brown | 32 | 19% | 9% | 25% |
| San Miguel | 32 | 31% | 6% | 47% |
More: Almirante Brown season stats · San Miguel season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.