First Division · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts AEL at 45%, the draw at 25% and Omonia 29is Maiou at 30%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. First Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AEL have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Omonia 29is Maiou 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.69 for AEL and 1.34 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | 4 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 100% | 50% | 75% |
More: AEL season stats · Omonia 29is Maiou season stats · First Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.