J2 League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Yokohama FC at 63%, the draw at 24% and Oita Trinita at 13%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 0.61.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Yokohama FC have 5 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), Oita Trinita 2 in 9 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Yokohama FC and 0.61 for Oita Trinita. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama FC | 9 | 56% | 44% | 44% |
| Oita Trinita | 9 | 22% | 11% | 56% |
More: Yokohama FC season stats · Oita Trinita season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.