3. Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Würzburger Kickers at 29%, the draw at 24% and Hansa Rostock at 47%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.74.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Würzburger Kickers have 6 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Hansa Rostock 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Würzburger Kickers and 1.74 for Hansa Rostock. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 86% | 43% | 57% |
| Hansa Rostock | 7 | 71% | 71% | 86% |
More: Würzburger Kickers season stats · Hansa Rostock season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.