2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts VfL Osnabrück at 37%, the draw at 23% and Dynamo Dresden at 40%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfL Osnabrück have 4 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Dynamo Dresden 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 1.77 for VfL Osnabrück and 1.85 for Dynamo Dresden. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
| Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 83% | 33% | 67% |
More: VfL Osnabrück season stats · Dynamo Dresden season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.