J2 League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Ventforet Kofu at 34%, the draw at 30% and Tochigi City at 37%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ventforet Kofu have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 5 at home), Tochigi City 7 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Ventforet Kofu and 1.14 for Tochigi City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventforet Kofu | 9 | 56% | 11% | 56% |
| Tochigi City | 9 | 78% | 56% | 56% |
More: Ventforet Kofu season stats · Tochigi City season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.