Liga Profesional · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Union Santa Fe at 51%, the draw at 24% and Defensa Y Justicia at 25%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union Santa Fe have 18 in 29 this season (7 of 13 at home), Defensa Y Justicia 12 in 27 (7 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Union Santa Fe and 1.2 for Defensa Y Justicia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 29 | 62% | 31% | 62% |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 27 | 44% | 19% | 56% |
More: Union Santa Fe season stats · Defensa Y Justicia season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.