Veikkausliiga · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Turku PS at 53%, the draw at 27% and FF Jaro at 20%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Turku PS have 11 in 25 this season (7 of 13 at home), FF Jaro 12 in 25 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Turku PS and 0.84 for FF Jaro. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Turku PS season stats · FF Jaro season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.