2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Darmstadt 98 at 55%, the draw at 22% and Energie Cottbus at 23%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Darmstadt 98 have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Energie Cottbus 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.02 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.22 for Energie Cottbus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Energie Cottbus | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
More: SV Darmstadt 98 season stats · Energie Cottbus season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.