League Two · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Stirling Albion at 34%, the draw at 26% and Kelty Hearts at 40%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stirling Albion have 5 in 9 this season (1 of 4 at home), Kelty Hearts 6 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Stirling Albion and 1.42 for Kelty Hearts. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling Albion | 9 | 56% | 44% | 44% |
| Kelty Hearts | 9 | 67% | 56% | 67% |
More: Stirling Albion season stats · Kelty Hearts season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.