League One · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–5 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Montrose at 22%, the draw at 22% and Ross County at 56%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 2.05.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Montrose have 8 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), Ross County 6 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Montrose and 2.05 for Ross County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose | 9 | 89% | 11% | 44% |
| Ross County | 8 | 75% | 63% | 50% |
More: Montrose season stats · Ross County season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.