Primera Nacional · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 4–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Midland at 54%, the draw at 33% and Atletico DE Rafaela at 13%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.42.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Midland have 8 in 32 this season (2 of 16 at home), Atletico DE Rafaela 9 in 32 (3 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 21%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Midland and 0.42 for Atletico DE Rafaela. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 30%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midland | 32 | 25% | 9% | 38% |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 32 | 28% | 13% | 34% |
More: Midland season stats · Atletico DE Rafaela season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.