Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Jagiellonia at 29%, the draw at 27% and Gornik Zabrze at 44%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jagiellonia have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Gornik Zabrze 6 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Jagiellonia and 1.42 for Gornik Zabrze. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| Gornik Zabrze | 9 | 67% | 22% | 67% |
More: Jagiellonia season stats · Gornik Zabrze season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.