Championship · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Inverness CT at 31%, the draw at 32% and Stenhousemuir at 37%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Inverness CT have 3 in 8 this season (0 of 4 at home), Stenhousemuir 1 in 8 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Inverness CT and 1.01 for Stenhousemuir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness CT | 8 | 38% | 38% | 50% |
| Stenhousemuir | 8 | 13% | 13% | 25% |
More: Inverness CT season stats · Stenhousemuir season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.