NB I · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Ferencvarosi TC at 41%, the draw at 24% and Debreceni VSC at 34%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferencvarosi TC have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 2 at home), Debreceni VSC 4 in 8 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.47 for Debreceni VSC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| Debreceni VSC | 8 | 50% | 50% | 63% |
More: Ferencvarosi TC season stats · Debreceni VSC season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.