Super League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 77% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Zurich at 23%, the draw at 20% and FC Thun at 57%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 2.46.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Zurich have 8 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), FC Thun 7 in 9 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 73% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 1.56 for FC Zurich and 2.46 for FC Thun. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: FC Zurich season stats · FC Thun season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.