League One · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts East Kilbride at 46%, the draw at 26% and Airdrie United at 29%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. East Kilbride have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Airdrie United 4 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.57 for East Kilbride and 1.19 for Airdrie United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 9 | 78% | 33% | 44% |
| Airdrie United | 9 | 44% | 22% | 44% |
More: East Kilbride season stats · Airdrie United season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.