Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Chornomorets at 34%, the draw at 29% and FC Kharkiv at 37%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chornomorets have 1 in 6 this season (1 of 4 at home), FC Kharkiv 3 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Chornomorets and 1.22 for FC Kharkiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets | 6 | 17% | 0% | 33% |
| FC Kharkiv | 6 | 50% | 33% | 17% |
More: Chornomorets season stats · FC Kharkiv season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.