Stars League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Shahaniya at 50%, the draw at 24% and Lusail City at 25%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Stars League has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Shahaniya have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 1 at home), Lusail City 2 in 4 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Al Shahaniya and 1.18 for Lusail City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shahaniya | 4 | 75% | 50% | 100% |
| Lusail City | 4 | 50% | 50% | 25% |
More: Al Shahaniya season stats · Lusail City season stats · Stars League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.