Allsvenskan · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 5–6 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 11, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts AIK Stockholm at 41%, the draw at 25% and IF Brommapojkarna at 34%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AIK Stockholm have 14 in 22 this season (6 of 10 at home), IF Brommapojkarna 16 in 22 (10 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.57 for AIK Stockholm and 1.4 for IF Brommapojkarna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK Stockholm | 22 | 64% | 27% | 68% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 22 | 73% | 36% | 73% |
More: AIK Stockholm season stats · IF Brommapojkarna season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.