National League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts AFC Hornchurch at 48%, the draw at 27% and Eastleigh at 25%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AFC Hornchurch have 8 in 12 this season (2 of 5 at home), Eastleigh 6 in 12 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.47 for AFC Hornchurch and 0.97 for Eastleigh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 67% | 17% | 33% |
| Eastleigh | 12 | 50% | 25% | 75% |
More: AFC Hornchurch season stats · Eastleigh season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.