National League · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts AFC Fylde at 33%, the draw at 25% and Scunthorpe at 42%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AFC Fylde have 9 in 12 this season (3 of 5 at home), Scunthorpe 6 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.44 for AFC Fylde and 1.64 for Scunthorpe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde | 12 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| Scunthorpe | 11 | 55% | 36% | 55% |
More: AFC Fylde season stats · Scunthorpe season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.