Primera Division · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts ADT at 44%, the draw at 25% and FC Cajamarca at 31%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ADT have 13 in 27 this season (7 of 14 at home), FC Cajamarca 18 in 27 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 27 and 27 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.6 for ADT and 1.32 for FC Cajamarca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADT | 27 | 48% | 30% | 52% |
| FC Cajamarca | 27 | 67% | 44% | 74% |
More: ADT season stats · FC Cajamarca season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.