Primeira Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Academico Viseu at 35%, the draw at 27% and Estoril at 39%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.39.
The league sets the starting point. Primeira Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Academico Viseu have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Estoril 2 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Academico Viseu and 1.39 for Estoril. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | 7 | 57% | 29% | 43% |
| Estoril | 7 | 29% | 0% | 43% |
More: Academico Viseu season stats · Estoril season stats · Primeira Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.