3. Liga · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Preußen Münster at 51%, the draw at 20% and Rot-Weiß Essen at 29%, from expected goals of 2.31 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Preußen Münster have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Rot-Weiß Essen 3 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 2.31 for Preußen Münster and 1.72 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 7 | 71% | 43% | 86% |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 43% | 29% | 57% |
More: Preußen Münster season stats · Rot-Weiß Essen season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.