Cymru Premier · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 1–4 (half-time 1–3). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Llandudno at 50%, the draw at 25% and Airbus UK at 25%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Llandudno have 7 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Airbus UK 6 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Llandudno and 1.09 for Airbus UK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Llandudno season stats · Airbus UK season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.