Liga I · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Corvinul Hunedoara at 64%, the draw at 22% and FC Voluntari at 15%, from expected goals of 1.95 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corvinul Hunedoara have 3 in 10 this season (2 of 5 at home), FC Voluntari 7 in 10 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.95 for Corvinul Hunedoara and 0.81 for FC Voluntari. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvinul Hunedoara | 10 | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| FC Voluntari | 10 | 70% | 50% | 50% |
More: Corvinul Hunedoara season stats · FC Voluntari season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.