Cymru Premier · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Cardiff MET at 59%, the draw at 21% and Trefelin at 20%, from expected goals of 2.14 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cardiff MET have 6 in 12 this season (5 of 6 at home), Trefelin 6 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.14 for Cardiff MET and 1.16 for Trefelin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 12 | 50% | 42% | 33% |
| Trefelin | 12 | 50% | 33% | 42% |
More: Cardiff MET season stats · Trefelin season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.