Cymru Premier · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Cambrian & Clydach at 54%, the draw at 23% and Ammanford AFC at 23%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cambrian & Clydach have 10 in 12 this season (3 of 5 at home), Ammanford AFC 8 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Cambrian & Clydach and 1.16 for Ammanford AFC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | 83% | 50% | 58% |
| Ammanford AFC | 12 | 67% | 42% | 50% |
More: Cambrian & Clydach season stats · Ammanford AFC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.