2. Bundesliga · Friday, 9 October 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 60%, the draw at 22% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 19%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. 1. FC Heidenheim have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.05 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.05 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 50% | 0% | 17% |
More: 1. FC Heidenheim season stats · 1. FC Kaiserslautern season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.