Stars League · Thursday, 8 October 2026. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Shamal at 32%, the draw at 25% and Al-Duhail SC at 43%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. Stars League has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Shamal have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Al-Duhail SC 0 in 4 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Al Shamal and 1.64 for Al-Duhail SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shamal | 4 | 75% | 75% | 100% |
| Al-Duhail SC | 4 | 0% | 0% | 75% |
More: Al Shamal season stats · Al-Duhail SC season stats · Stars League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.