J2 League · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Vanraure Hachinohe at 27%, the draw at 28% and Yokohama FC at 45%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vanraure Hachinohe have 3 in 8 this season (1 of 5 at home), Yokohama FC 5 in 8 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Vanraure Hachinohe and 1.35 for Yokohama FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 8 | 38% | 13% | 13% |
| Yokohama FC | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
More: Vanraure Hachinohe season stats · Yokohama FC season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.