Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 71% for over 2.5 goals. This game was not captured by our pre-kick-off freeze, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts PEC Zwolle W at 58%, the draw at 18% and Heerenveen W at 24%, from expected goals of 2.73 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PEC Zwolle W have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Heerenveen W 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 2.73 for PEC Zwolle W and 1.77 for Heerenveen W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Heerenveen W | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
More: PEC Zwolle W season stats · Heerenveen W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.