Premiere Ligue (W) · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Fleury 91 W at 13%, the draw at 18% and Paris Saint Germain W at 69%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 2.43.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Fleury 91 W have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Paris Saint Germain W 0 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 0.98 for FC Fleury 91 W and 2.43 for Paris Saint Germain W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fleury 91 W | 3 | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| Paris Saint Germain W | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: FC Fleury 91 W season stats · Paris Saint Germain W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.