NWSL (W) · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Chicago Red Stars W at 30%, the draw at 23% and Denver Summit W at 47%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 1.82.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Red Stars W have 13 in 26 this season (6 of 12 at home), Denver Summit W 16 in 26 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 26 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.82 for Denver Summit W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 50% | 31% | 27% |
| Denver Summit W | 26 | 62% | 35% | 65% |
More: Chicago Red Stars W season stats · Denver Summit W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.