Primera Nacional · Sunday, 4 October 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Chacarita Juniors at 43%, the draw at 31% and Patronato at 26%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chacarita Juniors have 8 in 31 this season (5 of 15 at home), Patronato 8 in 31 (3 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 28% and 28%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 28% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.83 for Patronato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chacarita Juniors | 31 | 26% | 6% | 29% |
| Patronato | 31 | 26% | 10% | 35% |
More: Chacarita Juniors season stats · Patronato season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.