Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Vittsjö W at 49%, the draw at 27% and Eskilstuna United W at 24%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vittsjö W have 11 in 20 this season (4 of 10 at home), Eskilstuna United W 7 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 20 and 20 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Vittsjö W and 0.98 for Eskilstuna United W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittsjö W | 20 | 55% | 25% | 60% |
| Eskilstuna United W | 20 | 35% | 10% | 15% |
More: Vittsjö W season stats · Eskilstuna United W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.