Eerste Divisie · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Vitesse at 37%, the draw at 23% and NAC Breda at 39%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vitesse have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), NAC Breda 7 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Vitesse and 1.72 for NAC Breda. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Vitesse season stats · NAC Breda season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.