Liga F (W) · Saturday, 3 October 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Sevilla W at 26%, the draw at 24% and FC Levante Badalona W at 50%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sevilla W have 2 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Levante Badalona W 2 in 5 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Sevilla W and 1.77 for FC Levante Badalona W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla W | 5 | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| FC Levante Badalona W | 5 | 40% | 40% | 40% |
More: Sevilla W season stats · FC Levante Badalona W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.